Friday, December 2, 2011

Hail Hydra! Exports Statistics Show you cut off one head another grows!

Hail Hydra! Exports Statistics Show you cut off one head another grows!

Yes between 2008 - 2010 around 30 US distributors heads got cut off. Much like the mythical Hydra if one head gets cut off two more takes its place and nowhere is the clearer than in the Powersports Industry.

Just like the evil banks that keep getting propped up by our government with behind the scene secret bailout loans even congress doesn't know about the Chinese Motorcycle Industry is coming back. That's right, much like a facehugger smuggled into the Nostromo they laid the eggs inside us for future growth. I say this because many of these big players get secret loans and kickbacks for getting dollars and exporting more basically destroying the European and American Powersports Business and our industry only feeds it by outsourcing more. If you analyze the last twenty years of the industry it's like Dante's inferno and the guy who keeps chewing on himself because he's always hungry. 

The market is set to come back if importers are buying again or new importers are starting. At least the Chinese scooter market is coming back. See the former postings so you can see how the Japanese exports and Italian exports are down.

Chinese Export Data from customs: the sales of scooters under 50cc increased 133.74% from Jan to July compared with 2010. That's still down from 2007, 2008, but a lot better than 2009 and 2010.

Qty for year 2011 from Jan – July: 77750 pcs
Qty for year 2010 from Jan –July: 33263 pcs


So one company goes under, a couple of scooter stores close, someone sees an opportunity and like the endless wishing well they invest a few hundred thousand a WOW a new brand is born. Call it whatever you like, but it sounds like 2012 will have more scooters in warehouses again.

ZNEN-MOTOR alone now has 9 distributors including some that used to import from other factories and now according to my sources switched over to one of the few EPA compliant factories. What does this mean? It means you can buy the same model from 9 different distributors at 9 different prices. Anyone remember the FlyScooters Bello or the TNG Retro 150? Wait don't you meant the PUMA Elvis? I mean the ZNEN 150? Excalibur Retro? Blackjack 150 anyone? They are all the same factory, the same homogeneous product competing purely on price and your relationship with the importer. This is only similar to the situation that occurred when CF MOTO had 4 private label importers QLINK, Yamati, Diamo, Italjet, all selling the same 150cc for different prices. How did that work out for brand recognition long term?

Exports from Japan, Italy, and Taiwan are down. Exports from China to the US are up. That only means the US Scooter scene is set for a comeback in 2012. So while everyone is driving Chinese bikes we can at least visit Universal Studios and see what the Italian scooter scene of yesterday was like.....

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